Political Scientists predict Romney win

the article is here.  these two political scientists are legitimate, and their economic model is surprisingly accurate.  political scientists know that economics matters more than politics.  This goes back to research in the 1960's where policy differences among the American states were explained (mathematically) by the economic conditions of states, and not so much on the unique political culture variables of the states.  But something is lacking here.  yes, their model predicts the last 8 presidential races.  but that does not mean that extraneous variables, not included in their model, were not at play.  In 2004, for example, Bush relied on fear, on commander in chief issues, on boots on the ground feelings among the voting public.  He also had his operatives pass out campaign literature in churches in Ohio the sunday before election day:  he used christianity, the prostestant evangelical version, to get votes.  In 2000, the economic condition was good for gore; however, there was election day ballot problems in florida, and the Nader campaign also took away votes.  I would have to say that these two political scientists were lucky in the past.  I mean, a sample of 8 elections isnt enough for me to be convinced, and they leave out important variables (such as the church stuffing, the fear mongering....)

Besides, politics does matter:  i found in the case of Medicaid reform, that the political culture of a state was a better predictor of reform success than economics:  oregon and massachusetts had effective reform, due in large part to their political culture.  Both these states now have affordable, accessible, and quality health care programs:  and all their citizens are covered by some kind of plan.

If these two professors are correct, however, we will be having a President the next 4 years who wears funny looking religious underwear, and believes that God talked to a farmer and have him a religious text printed on the inside of a hat.  Then again, people believe that some jewish guy lost in the desert climbed up a mountain and received commandments from God written on stone.  so maybe mormonism isnt that weird.  but the underwear stuff is just too weird for me.  I can see wearing a kippah to cover the head out of modesty before God, but the underwear stuff (i mean no one can see it!) is just too weird.